The National Hurricane Center has issued a tropical storm watch for the U.S.-Mexico border out of concern that Hurricane Kay will travel north-northwest along the Baja California peninsula and bring heavy rain to Tijuana and Southern California.
The storm is expected to be off central Baja California on Thursday and northern Baja California by early Friday. Forecasters say that Kay will likely diminish and become a tropical storm by the time it nears the border region. But it’s possible the cyclone will come within 150 miles of San Diego as it weakens, throwing off lots of tropical moisture at the end of a long, oppressive heat wave that strained California’s power grid.
“As the center of Kay passes just offshore, heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, including landslides, across the Baja California peninsula and portions of mainland northwestern Mexico through Saturday morning,” the National Hurricane Center said in a statement.
“Flash, urban, and small stream flooding is possible across Southern California, especially in and near the peninsular ranges, and Southwest Arizona, Friday night into Saturday,” it said.
Forecast models indicate that Kay could produce 0.75 inches of rain along the San Diego County coast, and roughly twice that amount across inland valleys and foothills. And it is possible that some mountain areas could get 3 to 6 inches of rain.
The precipitation is expected to begin late Friday night in San Diego County and last through most of Saturday. The rain could affect the playing surface at Snapdragon Stadium in Mission Valley, where the San Diego State University football team will play Idaho State Saturday, starting at 5 p.m.
The rain will be preceded Thursday by strong offshore winds that will greatly increase the risk of wildfires across San Diego County, forecasters said. Winds could gust 40 mph to 70 mph in Alpine and 30 mph to 40 mph in San Diego.
Forecasters say the situation may turn out to be similar to what happened in 2015 when two tropical systems, Delores and Linda, brought heavy rain to Southern California.